Australian Federal Election 2013 Electorate Seats Forecasts House of Representatives

Australian Federal Election 2013: Electorate Seats Forecasts

At this point, it’s now a little over the halfway mark in the campaign trail of the Australian federal election 2013.  The general gist of things to this point, is that numerous polls are favouring the Coalition (Liberal) over Labor.  From the table below, on the basis of the individual electorate seats for the House of Representatives, projections are suggesting that Labor is likely to win 60 seats, the Coalition win 85 seats, and the minor parties and independents collectively win five seats.

The results in the table below were calculated on a two party preferred (2PP) basis of the incumbent party from the 2010 Australian federal election, taking into account preferences and their nearest challenger, and statistically updated to reflect the sentiment of current polling results as at 22nd August 2013.

Whilst subject to error, like any forecast, especially where there are marginal seats, and with respect to any incumbent that is not in either of the two major parties given the current sentiment towards independents (plus some are retiring from politics) and the minor parties following the results – and the wheeling and dealings - of the 2010 election, it appears that the Coalition is set to win the 2013 Australian federal election.  This is broadly consistent with the overall polls.

There are, however, the marginal seats where it’s realistically too close to call.  With 10 of these forecasted, whilst they could make all the difference, the overall result still favours the Coalition gaining the balance of power.

 

Electorate Incumbent Party Expected Proportion of Votes (2PP)* Marginal Seat?
Labor Coalition Other
Adelaide (SA) Australian Labor Party 53.8% 45.7%
Aston (VIC) Liberal Party 45.5% 54.0%
Ballarat (VIC) Australian Labor Party 58.1% 41.4%
Banks (NSW) Australian Labor Party 47.7% 51.8%
Barker (SA) Liberal Party 33.6% 66.0%
Barton (NSW) Australian Labor Party 53.2% 46.3%
Bass (TAS) Australian Labor Party 53.0% 46.5%
Batman (VIC) Australian Labor Party 54.1% 45.4%
Bendigo (VIC) Australian Labor Party 55.7% 43.8%
Bennelong (NSW) Liberal Party 43.2% 56.3%
Berowra (NSW) Liberal Party 30.5% 69.1%
Blair (QLD) Australian Labor Party 50.4% 49.1% Yes
Blaxland (NSW) Australian Labor Party 58.6% 40.9%
Bonner (QLD) Liberal National Party 43.5% 56.0%
Boothby (SA) Liberal Party 45.6% 53.9%
Bowman (QLD) Liberal National Party 36.1% 63.5%
Braddon (TAS) Australian Labor Party 53.8% 45.7%
Bradfield (NSW) Liberal Party 28.6% 71.0%
Brand (WA) Australian Labor Party 49.5% 50.0% Yes
Brisbane (QLD) Liberal National Party 45.1% 54.4%
Bruce (VIC) Australian Labor Party 54.0% 45.5%
Calare (NSW) The Nationals 35.8% 63.8%
Calwell (VIC) Australian Labor Party 66.8% 32.7%
Canberra (ACT) Australian Labor Party 55.4% 44.1%
Canning (WA) Liberal Party 44.1% 55.5%
Capricornia (QLD) Australian Labor Party 49.9% 49.6% Yes
Casey (VIC) Liberal Party 44.4% 55.2%
Charlton (NSW) Australian Labor Party 59.1% 40.4%
Chifley (NSW) Australian Labor Party 58.7% 40.8%
Chisholm (VIC) Australian Labor Party 52.1% 47.5%
Cook (NSW) Liberal Party 33.8% 65.7%
Corangamite (VIC) Australian Labor Party 46.5% 53.0%
Corio (VIC) Australian Labor Party 59.9% 39.6%
Cowan (WA) Liberal Party 40.0% 59.5%
Cowper (NSW) The Nationals 37.1% 62.4%
Cunningham (NSW) Australian Labor Party 59.6% 39.9%
Curtin (WA) Liberal Party 30.5% 69.1%
Dawson (QLD) Liberal National Party 43.9% 55.7%
Deakin (VIC) Australian Labor Party 46.8% 52.7%
Denison (TAS) Independent 45.0% 54.5%
Dickson (QLD) Liberal National Party 41.2% 58.3%
Dobell (NSW) Australian Labor Party 51.3% 48.2%
Dunkley (VIC) Liberal Party 45.2% 54.3%
Durack (WA) Liberal Party 32.9% 66.7%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Liberal Party 50.4% 49.1% Yes
Fadden (QLD) Liberal National Party 32.4% 67.2%
Fairfax (QLD) Liberal National Party 39.3% 60.2%
Farrer (NSW) Liberal Party 32.1% 67.4%
Fisher (QLD) Liberal National Party 42.2% 57.3%
Flinders (VIC) Liberal Party 37.3% 62.2%
Flynn (QLD) Liberal National Party 42.7% 56.8%
Forde (QLD) Liberal National Party 44.6% 54.9%
Forrest (WA) Liberal Party 37.7% 61.8%
Fowler (NSW) Australian Labor Party 55.1% 44.4%
Franklin (TAS) Australian Labor Party 57.2% 42.4%
Fraser (ACT) Australian Labor Party 60.7% 38.9%
Fremantle (WA) Australian Labor Party 52.0% 47.6%
Gellibrand (VIC) Australian Labor Party 71.1% 28.5%
Gilmore (NSW) Liberal Party 41.0% 58.5%
Gippsland (VIC) The Nationals 35.0% 64.6%
Goldstein (VIC) Liberal Party 40.3% 59.2%
Gorton (VIC) Australian Labor Party 70.6% 29.0%
Grayndler (NSW) Australian Labor Party 50.4% 49.1% Yes
Greenway (NSW) Australian Labor Party 47.1% 52.4%
Grey (SA) Liberal Party 35.3% 64.3%
Griffith (QLD) Australian Labor Party 54.8% 44.7%
Groom (QLD) Liberal National Party 28.3% 71.3%
Hasluck (WA) Liberal Party 45.6% 53.9%
Herbert (QLD) Liberal National Party 44.1% 55.5%
Higgins (VIC) Liberal Party 40.9% 58.6%
Hindmarsh (SA) Australian Labor Party 52.4% 47.1%
Hinkler (QLD) Liberal National Party 36.1% 63.5%
Holt (VIC) Australian Labor Party 60.5% 39.1%
Hotham (VIC) Australian Labor Party 60.5% 39.1%
Hughes (NSW) Liberal Party 41.1% 58.4%
Hume (NSW) Liberal Party 37.7% 61.8%
Hunter (NSW) Australian Labor Party 58.9% 40.6%
Indi (VIC) Liberal Party 37.4% 62.1%
Isaacs (VIC) Australian Labor Party 56.7% 42.8%
Jagajaga (VIC) Australian Labor Party 57.5% 42.1%
Kennedy (QLD) Katter’s Australian Party 34.6% 64.9%
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Australian Labor Party 51.4% 48.1%
Kingston (SA) Australian Labor Party 61.1% 38.5%
Kooyong (VIC) Liberal Party 38.9% 60.7%
La Trobe (VIC) Australian Labor Party 47.9% 51.6%
Lalor (VIC) Australian Labor Party 69.0% 30.6%
Leichhardt (QLD) Liberal National Party 41.7% 57.8%
Lilley (QLD) Australian Labor Party 49.4% 50.1% Yes
Lindsay (NSW) Australian Labor Party 47.3% 52.2%
Lingiari (NT) Australian Labor Party 49.9% 49.6% Yes
Longman (QLD) Liberal National Party 44.4% 55.2%
Lyne (NSW) Independent 40.4% 59.1%
Lyons (TAS) Australian Labor Party 58.7% 40.8%
Macarthur (NSW) Liberal Party 43.3% 56.2%
Mackellar (NSW) Liberal Party 31.0% 68.6%
Macquarie (NSW) Liberal Party 44.9% 54.6%
Makin (SA) Australian Labor Party 58.4% 41.1%
Mallee (VIC) The Nationals 23.9% 75.8%
Maranoa (QLD) Liberal National Party 24.2% 75.4%
Maribyrnong (VIC) Australian Labor Party 64.1% 35.4%
Mayo (SA) Liberal Party 39.1% 60.5%
McEwen (VIC) Australian Labor Party 55.5% 44.0%
McMahon (NSW) Australian Labor Party 54.1% 45.4%
McMillan (VIC) Liberal Party 42.1% 57.4%
McPherson (QLD) Liberal National Party 36.2% 63.4%
Melbourne (VIC) The Greens 40.4% 59.1%
Melbourne Ports (VIC) Australian Labor Party 54.2% 45.3%
Menzies (VIC) Liberal Party 37.7% 61.8%
Mitchell (NSW) Liberal Party 29.6% 70.0%
Moncrieff (QLD) Liberal National Party 29.3% 70.3%
Moore (WA) Liberal Party 35.3% 64.3%
Moreton (QLD) Australian Labor Party 47.3% 52.2%
Murray (VIC) Liberal Party 27.3% 72.3%
New England (NSW) Independent 31.2% 68.3%
Newcastle (NSW) Australian Labor Party 58.9% 40.6%
North Sydney (NSW) Liberal Party 32.5% 67.1%
O’Connor (WA) Liberal Party 24.1% 75.5%
Oxley (QLD) Australian Labor Party 52.1% 47.5%
Page (NSW) Australian Labor Party 50.4% 49.1% Yes
Parkes (NSW) The Nationals 28.0% 71.6%
Parramatta (NSW) Australian Labor Party 50.6% 48.9% Yes
Paterson (NSW) Liberal Party 41.0% 58.5%
Pearce (WA) Liberal Party 37.5% 62.0%
Perth (WA) Australian Labor Party 52.2% 47.4%
Petrie (QLD) Australian Labor Party 48.7% 50.8%
Port Adelaide (SA) Australian Labor Party 67.7% 31.9%
Rankin (QLD) Australian Labor Party 51.6% 47.9%
Reid (NSW) Australian Labor Party 48.9% 50.6% Yes
Richmond (NSW) Australian Labor Party 53.3% 46.2%
Riverina (NSW) The Nationals 28.6% 71.0%
Robertson (NSW) Australian Labor Party 47.2% 52.3%
Ryan (QLD) Liberal National Party 39.2% 60.4%
Scullin (VIC) Australian Labor Party 67.3% 32.3%
Shortland (NSW) Australian Labor Party 59.3% 40.2%
Solomon (NT) Country Liberals 44.5% 55.1%
Stirling (WA) Liberal Party 40.7% 58.8%
Sturt (SA) Liberal Party 42.7% 56.8%
Swan (WA) Liberal Party 43.8% 55.8%
Sydney (NSW) Australian Labor Party 63.7% 35.9%
Tangney (WA) Liberal Party 34.2% 65.3%
Throsby (NSW) Australian Labor Party 58.5% 41.0%
Wakefield (SA) Australian Labor Party 56.8% 42.7%
Wannon (VIC) Liberal Party 40.6% 58.9%
Warringah (NSW) Liberal Party 33.5% 66.1%
Watson (NSW) Australian Labor Party 55.4% 44.1%
Wentworth (NSW) Liberal Party 31.7% 67.8%
Werriwa (NSW) Australian Labor Party 53.1% 46.4%
Wide Bay (QLD) Liberal National Party 31.1% 68.5%
Wills (VIC) Australian Labor Party 70.5% 29.1%
Wright (QLD) Liberal National Party 36.2% 63.3%
*Note 2PP proportions will not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

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