NSW State Election 2015: District Seats Forecasts

With approximately one week remaining until the NSW state election day on Saturday 28 March 2015, current polling data at the time of writing is favouring a return to power for the Liberal Party with Mike Baird as the leader.

Following a similar method used to forecast the 2013 Australian federal election, forecasts were made on a two party preferred (TPP) basis for the 2015 NSW state election. Based on statistically updating past district seats data (including any by-elections) for the Legislative Assembly with polling data current as at 20 March 2015.

As shown in the table below, of the 93 district seats, the Australian Labor Party is expected to win 17 seats (including both the Australian Labor Party and the Country Labor Party), the Coalition 70 seats (including both the Liberal Party and the National Party), and the other minor parties and independents collectively six seats. Implying that the Coalition is likely to win the state election overall; this is consistent with current polling results. On the basis of the forecasts, there are seven district seats which are reasonably too close to call. However, even factoring this in, the balance of probabilities still favours a Coalition win.

Potential sources of error are likely attributed to where the two preferred parties in an electoral district seat are not both of the two major parties. Additionally, effective from the 2015 state election, redistributions of electoral district boundaries in NSW occurred in 2013. Which also included abolishing seven of the districts (Burrinjuck, Marrickville, Menai, Murray-Darling, Murrumbidgee, Smithfield, and Toongabbie). Whilst some were essentially only renamed, the act of changing the district boundaries in general will add additional noise to the forecasts below. Furthermore a new district, Newtown, was created. With no incumbent party or past data specifically for the district, the forecast for Newtown is likely subject greater error than the others.

 

Legislative Assembly – Two Party Preferred Forecasts
District Incumbent Party Expected Proportion of Votes (TPP)* Marginal Seat?
Labor Coalition Other
Albury Liberal Party 21.9% 78.1%
Auburn Australian Labor Party 56.8% 43.1%
Ballina National Party 23.5% 76.4%
Balmain The Greens 48.2% 51.7%
Bankstown Australian Labor Party 58.6% 41.3%
Barwon National Party 17.0% 83.0%
Bathurst National Party 25.0% 75.0%
Baulkham Hills Liberal Party 22.4% 77.6%
Bega Liberal Party 29.9% 70.0%
Blacktown Australian Labor Party 52.0% 48.0%
Blue Mountains Liberal Party 43.5% 56.5%
Cabramatta Australian Labor Party 50.3% 49.6% Yes
Camden Liberal Party 29.6% 70.3%
Campbelltown Liberal Party 44.9% 55.1%
Canterbury Australian Labor Party 56.7% 43.2%
Castle Hill Liberal Party 18.1% 81.8%
Cessnock Country Labor Party 52.7% 47.3%
Charlestown Australian Labor Party 76.3% 23.7%
Clarence National Party 31.5% 68.5%
Coffs Harbour National Party 21.6% 78.4%
Coogee Liberal Party 40.1% 59.8%
Cootamundra National Party 17.8% 82.1%
Cronulla Liberal Party 23.2% 76.7%
Davidson Liberal Party 12.7% 87.3%
Drummoyne Liberal Party 31.8% 68.2%
Dubbo National Party 65.2% 34.7%
East Hills Liberal Party 47.6% 52.3%
Epping Liberal Party 23.5% 76.4%
Fairfield Australian Labor Party 49.9% 50.0% Yes
Gosford Liberal Party 36.5% 63.5%
Goulburn Liberal Party 22.2% 77.8%
Granville Liberal Party 45.6% 54.4%
Hawkesbury Liberal Party 14.4% 85.6%
Heathcote Liberal Party 35.5% 64.5%
Heffron Australian Labor Party 70.2% 29.8%
Holsworthy Liberal Party 24.3% 75.7%
Hornsby Liberal Party 63.7% 36.3%
Keira Australian Labor Party 52.2% 47.8%
Kiama Liberal Party 40.8% 59.1%
Kogarah Australian Labor Party 50.1% 49.8% Yes
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Party 12.2% 87.7%
Lake Macquarie Independent 36.7% 63.3%
Lakemba Australian Labor Party 55.3% 44.7%
Lane Cove Liberal Party 21.5% 78.5%
Lismore National Party 24.4% 75.6%
Liverpool Australian Labor Party 63.1% 36.9%
Londonderry Liberal Party 36.1% 63.9%
Macquarie Fields Australian Labor Party 49.7% 50.2% Yes
Maitland Liberal Party 42.0% 58.0%
Manly Liberal Party 16.6% 83.4%
Maroubra Australian Labor Party 49.7% 50.2% Yes
Miranda Australian Labor Party 53.6% 46.4%
Monaro National Party 46.2% 53.8%
Mount Druitt Australian Labor Party 55.0% 45.0%
Mulgoa Liberal Party 36.4% 63.6%
Murray National Party 21.6% 78.4%
Myall Lakes National Party 20.2% 79.7%
Newcastle Australian Labor Party 57.0% 42.9%
Newtown None 47.5% 52.4%
North Shore Liberal Party 18.6% 81.3%
Northern Tablelands National Party 83.4% 16.6%
Oatley Liberal Party 47.7% 52.2%
Orange National Party 24.5% 75.5%
Oxley National Party 19.8% 80.2%
Parramatta Liberal Party 36.3% 63.7%
Penrith Liberal Party 32.1% 67.8%
Pittwater Liberal Party 14.6% 85.4%
Port Macquarie National Party 58.1% 41.8%
Port Stephens Liberal Party 36.0% 64.0%
Prospect Liberal Party 43.5% 56.5%
Riverstone Liberal Party 28.4% 71.6%
Rockdale Liberal Party 44.8% 55.2%
Ryde Liberal Party 23.0% 76.9%
Seven Hills Australian Labor Party 48.4% 51.5%
Shellharbour Australian Labor Party 56.9% 43%
South Coast Liberal Party 28.2% 71.8%
Strathfield Liberal Party 43.9% 56.1%
Summer Hill Australia Labor Party 49.1% 50.8% Yes
Swansea Liberal Party 47.1% 52.8%
Sydney Independent 34.7% 65.2%
Tamworth National Party 59.4% 40.5%
Terrigal Liberal Party 24.6% 75.4%
The Entrance Liberal Party 35.9% 64.1%
Tweed National Party 26.9% 73.0%
Upper Hunter National Party 25.3% 74.6%
Vaucluse Liberal Party 17.6% 82.4%
Wagga Wagga Liberal Party 21.0% 78.9%
Wakehurst Liberal Party 18.4% 81.5%
Wallsend Australian Labor Party 54.9% 45.1%
Willoughby Liberal Party 18.1% 81.8%
Wollondilly Liberal Party 33.7% 66.2%
Wollongong Australian Labor Party 49.2% 50.7% Yes
Wyong Liberal Party 45.7% 54.3%
* Note TPP Proportions may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

 

How the above forecasts pan out remains to be seen. In general they imply a swing away from Labor and towards the Liberals or other minor parties and independents.

As it is said though, a week is a lifetime in politics. So what happens between now and then will decide who is in, who is out, and who is forgotten about.

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Feature Image Credit: Danausi