Tag Archives: Prediction

Australian Federal Election 2016: Electorate Seats Forecasts

Near one week remains until the outcome of Australian federal election 2016 is officially decided. With voting set for Saturday, 2 July 2016, Australia will make a collective decision by numbering boxes on a number of ballot papers by voting for the House of Representatives and voting in the Senate. Down but Not Out As at the time of writing, 25 June 2016, market-based probabilities imply an 85.8 percent chance of the Coalition (collectively the Liberal Party and the National Party plus a few variations on these) winning the 2016 federal election, placing a corresponding 14.2 percent chance of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) winning. Further analysis, the results of which are shown in the table below, forecasts that in the House of Representatives, the Coalition is likely to win 86 seats, and Labor is likely to win 60 seats, with the minor parties and independents collectively expected to win ...

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NSW State Election 2015: District Seats Forecasts

With approximately one week remaining until the NSW state election day on Saturday 28 March 2015, current polling data at the time of writing is favouring a return to power for the Liberal Party with Mike Baird as the leader. Following a similar method used to forecast the 2013 Australian federal election, forecasts were made on a two party preferred (TPP) basis for the 2015 NSW state election. Based on statistically updating past district seats data (including any by-elections) for the Legislative Assembly with polling data current as at 20 March 2015. As shown in the table below, of the 93 district seats, the Australian Labor Party is expected to win 17 seats (including both the Australian Labor Party and the Country Labor Party), the Coalition 70 seats (including both the Liberal Party and the National Party), and the other minor parties and independents collectively six seats. Implying that the Coalition is likely to win ...

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Australian Federal Election 2013: Electorate Seats Forecasts

At this point, it’s now a little over the halfway mark in the campaign trail of the Australian federal election 2013.  The general gist of things to this point, is that numerous polls are favouring the Coalition (Liberal) over Labor.  From the table below, on the basis of the individual electorate seats for the House of Representatives, projections are suggesting that Labor is likely to win 60 seats, the Coalition win 85 seats, and the minor parties and independents collectively win five seats. The results in the table below were calculated on a two party preferred (2PP) basis of the incumbent party from the 2010 Australian federal election, taking into account preferences and their nearest challenger, and statistically updated to reflect the sentiment of current polling results as at 22nd August 2013. Whilst subject to error, like any forecast, especially where there are marginal seats, and with respect to any incumbent that is not ...

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